Riding The Wave Weekly Outlook #9
The 8 Week SMA continues to push us downwards but what will happen when we break through?
Welcome to Riding The Wave. If you have questions or feedback, please reply to this email. If you are new to the Newsletter, please check out what we provide on our about page and consider subscribing. Within the Newsletter, I provide News Summaries, Weekly Status Updates, & Deep Dive Articles on Specific Topics (Ex: How do I pick which coins/tokens to buy?). More details here
A small note regarding the Sunday News summary, in place of it I will be doing an article on Monday going over how to set up a wallet on Ethereum and a wallet on Cardano as well as where you can use them (Ex: Cardano staking, NFT buying). This will be part of a test I am doing where I am dividing up a deep dive topic into smaller bites to see if that makes it more enjoyable to read. I am also testing if you all enjoy having regularly scheduled content occasionally swapped out for irregular content.
Table of Contents
What’s Happening Now?
What Might Happen Next?
What does this mean for the bull run?
Tweets
What’s Happening Now?
The 8 week SMA has continued to push us down over the past 2 weeks. As we have discussed previously the 8 week SMA has functioned as resistance ever since we broke below it late last year.
Overall I am optimistic as both weeks it has pushed above the 8 week SMA, it just hasn’t been able to close above it. A close above the 8 week is one of the core things we are looking for in order for people to become more bullish as the 8 week has consistently held as resistance.
What Might Happen Next?
It’s possible that we find support at this point as we have found support at the $40,000 mark several times previously (as can be seen in the image below). With the 8 week SMA moving downwards Bitcoin would only have to maintain this price in order to rise above it.
If the 8 week SMA instead pushed Bitcoin down below the $40,000 mark we could see a bounce at the $33,000 range again. This would surprise me with all of the bullish news coming out as well as whales buying + supply dwindling but it is still possible.
What does this mean for the bull run?
In the long term view, I think we are close to a breakout that may be explosive in price. Everyone is hesitant at the moment due to our inability to hold the 8 week SMA and the other SMA’s we have traditionally held as support but once we do go above them I think people will rush in due to FOMO.
In the first half of this bull run, we saw buying patterns that demonstrated people were using the previous bull run as a benchmark of when to buy during drops(buying just before the % we saw in previous runs). Based on this I think people may rush to buy in when the next rally occurs as they will be trying to buy in using the information they got from the first half of this bull run.
In the first half of this bull run the drops ranged from 15-30% so I will likely try to average in around these ranges during dips (likely once when we reach 10% down & again if we reach 20%). I will present more exact numbers in the next weeks as more data becomes available.
It’s also completely possible that we won’t see a second leg to this bull run but based on all the information I am considering I still dont see this as being likely.
Tweets
Thank you for reading the article, if you have any feedback feel free to leave a comment, and if you think anyone would benefit from the info in here please feel free to share it.
Disclaimer: The information in this Newsletter is not financial, legal, or tax advice. I only trade on Etoro; if you are reached out to by people requesting you join a group or provide money, it is not me. My only public social media accounts are this Substack page, my Youtube page, my Twitter page, and my Etoro page; any others you see online are not me.