Riding The Wave Weekly Outlook #66

Bitcoin waits just under $30,000

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Table of Contents

1. Tweets

2. What’s Happening Now?

3. What Might Happen Next?

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Tweets

Root 🥕 @therationalroot

Where are we in the cycle? #Bitcoin

Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Coinbase to start donating to pro-crypto candidates in US elections.

Callie Cox @callieabost

Finally, some official data on deposit activity last week Small banks: 2.2% (or $120 bil) outflows (biggest since Mar. 2007) Large banks: 0.6% (or $67 bil) *inflows* (biggest since Feb. 2022) Looks more like a rotation into bigger banks, less like systemic distrust

Will Clemente @WClementeIII

The amount of Bitcoin supply that hasn't moved in at least two years is on a tear, making new all-time highs day after day

Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen calls top US financial regulators for an unscheduled meeting today that is closed to the public.

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

Collapses of Large Banks on Fridays: - Friday, Mar. 14, 2008: Bear Stearns hit by liquidity crisis - Friday, Sept. 12, 2008: Last trading day before Lehman Brothers declares bankruptcy - Friday, Sept. 26, 2008: Washington Mutual seized by regulators marking largest bank… https://t.co/HZGcJwbTh6

Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru

JUST IN: Nasdaq to launch #crypto custody services in Q2 2023.

Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth @biancoresearch

The Fed updated their balance sheet ... now ~two-thirds of QT has been reversed.

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

You can't make this up: The U.S. just announced they are investigating Credit Suisse and UBS for violating Russian sanctions. In 2009, Credit Suisse was fined $536 million for violating U.S. sanctions. They have been fined $11 billion since. Credit Suisse dug its own grave.

Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US banking 'turmoil' can’t be contained, Moody's warns.

Root 🥕 @therationalroot

Realized Price — the average purchase price of #Bitcoin — is once again rising! We measure this by looking at the 90 day change (to filter out noise) in Realized Price. We just flipped back positive (red circles).

kuntah ⚡ @paulewaulpaul

So far, the value of the network correlates with the number of addresses. #Bitcoin If you divide the number of addresses by the issuance, you get the following graph. In addition to production costs, the number of addresses is an important fundamental variable. 1/2 @glassnode

Puru Saxena @saxena_puru

"Helicopter money" to run out within months - End of excess savings = recession.

Game of Trades @GameofTrades_

Yield curve inversions have an exceptional track record of anticipating recessions This time is not different

unusual_whales @unusual_whales

Total consolidated assets of American banks, per the Transcript:

Bitcoin Archive @BTC_Archive

1 year down 🌧️ 3 years up ☀️ 🌈 LFG! 🚀

whalechart @WhaleChart

BREAKING: ​French influencers prohibited from promoting crypto projects on social media

Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives

EVERYONE should bookmark this chart. History shows “pivots” will trigger the REAL crash. But, but, but this time will be different right?

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What’s Happening Now?

Bitcoin(BTC)

Bitcoin has continued its rally up until the $30k price point, where it has found resistance.

Weekly Timeframe Bitcoin (pink line = 8 week SMA, green line = 20 week SMA, yellow line = 50 week SMA, red line = 200 week SMA)

On the daily time frame, bitcoin is finding resistance at the bottom of the 6th resistance area.

Daily Timeframe Bitcoin. Red/blue boxes are potential area support/resistance, blue line represents the downtrend Bitcoin is attempting to break through

Ethereum(Eth)

Ethereum is also above all 4 of its SMA’s and is finding resistance at the $19k mark.

Weekly Timeframe Ethereum

On the daily time frame, Ethereum is still in the middle of the 8th resistance area.

Daily Timeframe Ethereum. Red boxes are potential areas of support/resistance, the blue line represents the downtrend we seem to be following

Cardano(Ada)

Cardano is still below 3 of its SMA’s (200 week, 50 week, & 8 week SMA’s), but it has trended upwards over the past 2 weeks.

Weekly Timeframe Cardano

On the daily time frame, Cardano is still in the 5th resistance area.

Daily Timeframe Cardano. Red boxes are potential areas of support/resistance, the blue line represents the downtrend we were following.

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What Might Happen Next?