Riding The Wave Weekly Outlook #62

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Table of Contents

1. Tweets

2. What’s Happening Now?

3. What Might Happen Next?

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Tweets

Sven Henrich @NorthmanTrader

Keeping raising rates without knowing the lag effects while continuously selling a soft landing narrative which encourages risk taking countering the inflation fight has to be one of the most boneheaded policy communication strategies ever.

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

This is absolutely incredible: Futures are now pricing in a 33% chance of a 50 bps rate hike in March! 3 weeks ago, the odds of a 50 bps rate hike were 1%. There is a 30% chance that rates will rise to at least 5.75% by July. Markets are pivoting, in the hawkish direction.

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

JUST IN: Core PCE inflation just INCREASED for the first time since October 2022. Not only were the numbers above expectations, inflation is RISING again according to this data. The Fed's "preferred" inflation metric is literally rising again. Is a 50 bps rate hike coming?

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

First, the Fed said inflation isn't a problem, then it hit a 40-year high. Then, the Fed said inflation is "transitory" and it's been above 5% for 20 straight months. Now, the Fed said "disinflation" began and PCE inflation RISING again. Is this the most wrong Fed of all time?

Yano 🟪 @JasonYanowitz

Coinbase L2 is mega bullish for cbETH Step 1 → Coinbase makes UX decisions that push cbETH over other LSDs Step 2 → cbETH becomes the gas token of Base Boom multi-billion dollar Base business model.

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

Tomorrow morning we receive yet another inflation data point, PCE Inflation. The Fed stated multiple times that PCE inflation is their PREFERRED inflation measure. If PCE inflation is higher than expected, a 50 bps rate hike in March becomes more likely. This report is big.

Bitcoin Archive @BTC_Archive

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US state of Montana passes The "Right to Mine" #Bitcoin bill by a vote of 37 to 13. 🙌

Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve warns banks to watch for #cryptocurrency liquidity risk.

Rekt Capital @rektcapital

#BTC is currently sandwiched between two Bull Market EMAs • The 21-week EMA (green) • The 50-week EMA (blue) It's likely $BTC will continue to consolidate in between these two Bull Market EMAs for the time being Breach of the blue EMA resistance -> bullish #Crypto #Bitcoin

Bitcoin Archive @BTC_Archive

JUST IN: 🇩🇪 $482 Billion German banking giant DZ Bank to integrate #Bitcoin and crypto into its asset management services - Cointelegraph

Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru

JUST IN: SBF indictment says he made over 300 illegal political donations worth more than $10 million.

Bitcoin Archive @BTC_Archive

BREAKING‼️ Germany’s second-biggest bank, DZ Bank, to offer #Bitcoin and crypto to institutional clients - Cointelegraph

Bitcoin Archive @BTC_Archive

JUST IN‼️ 🇪🇺 Private #Bitcoin wallets will not be “banned” by the EU's new anti-money laundering bill - The Block Self-Custody! ✋💎🤚

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

JUST IN: Mortgage demand falls to a fresh 28-year low as rates near 7%. New home listings are down 17% this year while home sales are down nearly 30%. Homes are now taking 33 days longer to sell than when the housing market peaked. Higher rates are killing the housing market.

Callie Cox @callieabost

You could put your money in a 10-year Treasury bond and earn 3.9%, or you could put your money in a tech stock and potentially earn....4.2%😓 This is why it's tough to justify certain stocks at these levels (unless you can hold long enough for that risk-return to improve)

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What’s Happening Now?

Bitcoin(BTC)

Bitcoin has been rejected by its 200-week and 50-week SMAs

Weekly Timeframe Bitcoin (pink line = 8 week SMA, green line = 20 week SMA, yellow line = 50 week SMA, red line = 200 week SMA)

On the daily time frame, Bitcoin has fallen back into the 4th resistance area.

Daily Timeframe Bitcoin. Red/blue boxes are potential area support/resistance, blue line represents the downtrend Bitcoin is attempting to break through

Ethereum(Eth)

Ethereum has found resistance at its 50-week SMA.

Weekly Timeframe Ethereum

On the daily time frame, Ethereum has moved sideways since last week.

Daily Timeframe Ethereum. Red boxes are potential areas of support/resistance, the blue line represents the downtrend we seem to be following

Cardano(Ada)

Cardano has fallen back down to its 8-week SMA, where it is finding support.

Weekly Timeframe Cardano

On the daily time frame, Cardano has failed to break into the 6th resistance area.

Daily Timeframe Cardano. Red boxes are potential areas of support/resistance, the blue line represents the downtrend we were following.

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What Might Happen Next?