Riding The Wave Weekly Outlook #55

Jan 06, 2023

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Tweets
What’s Happening Now?
What Might Happen Next?

Tweets

whalechart.org @WhaleChart

BREAKING: Crypto exchane #Gemini COO Noah Perlman has quit.

Andrew @AP_Abacus

UPDATE: @Gemini and Credit Committee have forwarded another proposal to DCG/Genesis, last night. “Barry continues to hide behind lawyers and advisors using semantics to not engage.” “You can expect more shots to be fired, they will keep coming.”

PlanB @100trillionUSD

#bitcoin still below realized cost price, 5-month realized (aka short term holder price, STH) and 2-year realized. Things are getting interesting🔥

Root 🥕 @therationalroot

Tension will build up towards the end of this month as we wil encounter the Short-Term Holder cost basis once again. #Bitcoin will either break or reject, but some volatility will likely be back.

Sven Henrich @NorthmanTrader

Let's face it: This is not gonna get better until Fed governors are allowed to inside trade again. 😝 It was all over right after that.

Andrew @AP_Abacus

UPDATE: DOJ is squeezing @FTX_Official perps @SBF_FTX @carolinecapital and Gary Wang hard for wayyyy more than FTX/Alameda malfeasance. **DOJ/SEC wants decisive and quick wins within the entire crypto lending and trading ecosystem. Any and all ‘desks’ in the crosshairs.

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

Something many people missed directly from yesterday's Fed meeting minutes: "No participants anticipated that it would be appropriate to begin reducing the federal funds rate target in 2023." The Fed literally just said they do not expect to cut rates in 2023. This is huge.

Leigh Drogen @LDrogen

Couple of calls the last few days where pretty significant crypto people both said something to the effect of "LPs in venture funds that supposedly raised a lot of money aren't meeting capital calls, that dry powder isn't actually there"

whalechart.org @WhaleChart

BREAKING: #Huobi confirms 20% layoffs, denies insolvency rumors

Molly White @molly0xFFF

Sam Bankman-Fried has entered the fight over the $460M worth of Robinhood shares. Part of his argument is that he needs them to be able to pay for his legal defense, else he might face irreparable harm. “Conversely, the FTX Debtors face only the possibility of economic loss.”

Granting preliminary relief will result in far greater harm to the
nonmoving party.
The balance of equities weighs in favor of refusing to enforce or extend the stay.
Alienating this property from Emergent will render it inaccessible to Mr. Bankman-Fried, who is
presently facing potential criminal liability. Mr. Bankman-Fried requires some of these funds to
pay for his criminal defense. “[A] financial inability to defend oneself has serious consequences,
and is irreparable.” In re Adelphia Commc'ns Corp., 323 B.R. 345, 374 (Bankr. S.D.N.Y. 2005);
see also Ridder v. Cityfed Fin. Corp., 47 F.3d 85, 87 (3d Cir. 1995) (finding that irreparable
harm would result if legal fees were not advanced); Cox v. Fletcher Allen Health Care, No. 2:05-
CV-180, 2005 WL 2457632, at *2 (D. Vt. Oct. 5, 2005) (“the withholding of costs necessary to
an adequate criminal defense can constitute irreparable harm.”). Conversely, the FTX Debtors
face only the possibility of economic loss.

_Checkɱate 🔑⚡🌋☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_

So over the last 24hrs: - DCG continues to blow up in slow motion. - DOJ going after every lender of the cycle. - Silvergate down 50% in a day. - Huobi having troubles. And #Bitcoin price is basically a stablecoin. Wen $1k...am I right?

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: U.S. ECONOMY ADDS 223,000 JOBS IN DECEMBER, ABOVE EXPECTATIONS OF 200,000. The unemployment rate fell from 3.7% to 3.5%. So much for a “Fed pivot.”

Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine

Bloomberg Intelligence: #Bitcoin may revisit $10,000 in 2023. Bottom is in

What’s Happening Now?

Bitcoin(BTC)

Bitcoin is currently just above its 8-week SMA.

On the daily time frame, we are continuing to find support at the bottom of the 2nd resistance area.

Daily Timeframe Bitcoin. Red/blue boxes are potential area support/resistance, blue line represents the downtrend we were previously following

Ethereum(Eth)

Ethereum is also just above its 8 week SMA.

On the daily time frame, Ethereum has continued to move sideways above the blue downtrend we previously followed. It is near the top of the 6th resistance area, attempting to break through again.