Riding The Wave Weekly Outlook #47
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Table of Contents
Tweets
What’s Happening Now?
What Might Happen Next?
Tweets
A very simple and yet effective chart.
House prices plotted against mortgage rates.
Look at that orange dot and draw your own conclusions.
📢Calling all researchers! 🧵 Incoming but this is the contagion we know so far. Please provide info in the replies if you know of others so I can compile & share.
Thoughts 💭:
✅ALOT more contagion WILL come out
✅Entities w/FTX & Alameda exposure will be short targets
Proof of reserves on exchanges is going to help heal the significant lost of trust that had taken place. At least it is a step in the right direction even if coming late.
Exchanges will show proof of their reserves on chain.
It gets worse.
Alameda bought up and acquired 70% of USDT (Tether).
This could get even more systemic real quick..
#Bitcoin Model Update 🎯
Power Law Model, Zoomed In.
🟥 $87,140 to $148,139
⬛️ Fair Value | $43,707
🟦 $12,622 to $21,922
Follow for Updates! #BTC
1/n - One year ago, I made a thread about how Saylor wont be forced to sell. Update - Now he WILL be forced to sell.
degentrading @hodlKRYPTONITE
JUST IN: Sam Bankman-Fried previously transferred at least $4 billion in FTX funds to support Alameda, including user deposits, Reuters reports.
This is extremely concerning - The current credit card debt has surpassed even the peak of 2008 crisis.
So, Alameda blew up at the same time as 3AC did, but SBF bailed them out with customer funds secured by FTT and HOOD equity? reuters.com/technology/exc…
In previous #BTC cycles, it was Bitmex, earlier it was Mt Gox
Now FTX
It’s a pattern
Exchange contagion has become a historical tendency that occurs close to the absolute $BTC Bear Market bottom
Survive the capitulation & you will flourish in the Bull Market
#Crypto #Bitcoin
President Nayib: We don’t have any Bitcoin in FTX and never had any business with them
- Binance CEO
BREAKING: Tether freezes $46 million $USDT linked to an FTX address at the request of law enforcement, CoinDesk reports.
We now know that inflation is 7.7%, down from 9.1% in July, good news.
However, the case for a Fed pivot remains questionable.
The Fed cannot turn dovish if inflation is at 7.7%, they made that clear last week.
If markets get too far ahead of themselves, this won’t end well.
Here's a fun chart to think about...
•Previous bull cycle peak: Dec 17th, 2017
•Previous bear cycle bottom: Dec 17th, 2018
Exactly 365 days from peak to bottom.
•Current bull market peak: Nov 10th, 2021
Today is Nov 10th, 2022.
Crypto gods, have mercy on us.
JUST IN: FTX reaches agreement with Tron, allowing TRX, BTT, JST, SUN, & HT holders to swap assets from FTX 1:1 to external wallets.
BREAKING: From FTX US: trading may be halted on FTX US in a few days. Please close down any positions you want to close down. Withdrawals are and will remain open. We will give updates as we have them.
Will be interesting to see how much Stanford is roped into the FTX scandal...
Both SBF's parents are active law professors, the CEO of Alameda Research is a recent Stanford grad, and the FTX Foundation gave at least $1.5 million to Stanford
JUST IN: Tron founder Justin Sun says he's ready to provide billions to help FTX, Bloomberg reports.
If a crypto exchange has a product that offers yields above the current market rate on short term Treasuries, they are taking excess risk to achieve those returns.
Given everything that has occurred over the last six months, they have probably already taken damage.
Withdraw.
NEW: CryptoCom to disclose cold wallet addresses and major assets balances within 24 hours.
Good. 🤝
All exchanges should do it to restore confidence.
More transparency required immediately.
Funds are slowly come out of the woodwork with admissions of exposure & loss. This is the list of confirmed/formally announced @FTX_Official contagion.
I will continue to add to the list for us to track. 🤝
Word to the wise… GeminiEarn program is in trouble. TAKE YOUR MONEY OUT. https://t.co/23XHPusQ9J
degentrading @hodlKRYPTONITE
BlockFi appears to be one of the first companies to be severely affected by the FTX situation
It’s very possible there may be more to come
As the saying goes:
“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who has been swimming naked”
- Warren Buffet
#BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
Bitcoin miners are in pain and selling more than they have in almost 5 years!
Introducing: Bitcoin Miner Sell Pressure.
A free, open-source indicator which tracks on-chain data to highlight when Bitcoin miners are selling more of their reserves than usual.
FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried sold equity in the firm at a 50% discount to employees in the spring, per The Block.
It hasn’t affected us. We never used FTX.com though some of our partners did. We had some money on FTX.us but we moved it out earlier in the week. Heart goes out to anyone who has been hurt by this insanity.
metaboners.eth @metaboners
What’s Happening Now?
Bitcoin(BTC)
With the collapse of FTX, Bitcoin has reacted by crashing below the 8-week and 20-week SMA’s that it had just pulled above.
On the daily time frame, we have crashed down to and found support on the downtrend that we were following until October.
Ethereum(Eth)
Ethereum also crashed below all of the SMA’s it was above prior to the news of FTX.
On the daily time frame, Ethereum looks to be struggling to push back up to the top of the 6th resistance area.
Cardano(Ada)
Cardano failed to hold the 8-week SMA and followed the rest of crypto down as well.
We look to be far from any specific support areas on the daily time frame but working to move back up and retest the downtrend.
What Might Happen Next?
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