Riding The Wave Weekly Outlook #40

Sep 23, 2022

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Tweets
What’s Happening Now?
What Might Happen Next?

Tweets

Root 🥕 @therationalroot

STH & LTH cost basis about to cross, ~$100 apart on last nights close. Historic bottoms fell within days while crossing🤞. #Bitcoin

Callie Cox @callieabost

Interesting sector dynamics this week. The 10-year yield is heading for its biggest weekly rise since 2016, but cyclical sectors are leading the market lower. Feels recessionary.

Callie Cox @callieabost

I feel like this chart is gonna pop up a lot in the coming months, so...the unemployment rate in past recessions

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

Current situation: 1. Stocks falling like we are in a depression 2. Gold and oil up like the Fed said no more rate hikes 3. Bonds down like inflation is 20% 4. $VIX down like nothing is happening 5. Mortgage rates up like the Fed is crashing the market Nothing is adding up.

Dylan LeClair 🟠 @DylanLeClair_

#Bitcoin back below its average on-chain cost basis, otherwise known as realized price, which currently is ~21k. A typical occurrence in a $BTC bear market.

Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 FED Chair Jerome Powell cites FOMC split between 100BPS to 125BPS for the rest of the year.

Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 75bps.

Alf @MacroAlf

A very interesting Fed meeting. As always, the devil is in the details. Let's have a look at some of the most interesting nuances and market implications. A thread. 1/

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

You cannot make this up... One year ago the Fed said inflation would be 2.0% today. Today, the Fed said inflation won't hit 2.0% until 2025. Get ready...

What’s Happening Now?

Bitcoin(Btc)

Bitcoin is still below the $20k price point and the 4 moving averages we are tracking. It is currently finding support at $19k, but it has dipped below over the past week.

On the daily time frame, we have continued to respect the diagonal downtrend, with a retest likely to occur if we move sideways for another 1-2 weeks.

Daily Timeframe Bitcoin. Red/blue boxes are potential area support/resistance, blue line represents downtrend we seem to be following, yellow line represents 200 week SMA

Ethereum(Eth)

Ethereum has dropped following the merge and is just barely above its 200-week SMA, but below the other 3 SMA’s we are tracking.

On the daily time frame, you can see we touched the diagonal downtrend Ethereum has followed just before the merge, but we have now dropped as the excitement of the event has faded.