Riding The Wave Weekly Outlook #39

Welcome to Riding The Wave. If you have questions or feedback, please reply to this email. If you are new to the Newsletter, please check out what we provide on our about page and consider subscribing. Within the Newsletter, I provide News Summaries, Weekly Status Updates, & Deep Dive Articles on Specific Topics (Ex: How do I pick which coins/tokens to buy?). More details here

Table of Contents

1. Tweets

2. What’s Happening Now?

3. What Might Happen Next?

---

Tweets

Bitcoin Archive 🗄🚀🌔 @BTC_Archive

💥RUSSIA: Businesses can choose which cryptocurrency to use to pay for international trade. 👉#Bitcoin

Milton W Berg CFA @BergMilton

The S&P 600 generated a 50-to-1 downside-to-upside Declines/Advances ratio. This has occurred 18 times since 1995. Historically, 120 days later the S&P 500 had gained in price 100% of the time for a median gain of +16.89%.

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

Markets now: 1. $VIX is down despite reversal and $SPX down 10% in 3 weeks 2. Stocks trading like the bear market just started 3. Commodities are down like inflation is gone 4. Bonds trading like inflation is at 20% 5. Sentiment is like $SPX is at 5,000 This can’t end well.

Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru

JUST IN: #Fortnite creators Epic Games lists the first NFT-based game on their store, Blankos Block Party.

Alf @MacroAlf

There are two massive misinterpretations about the Fed right now. A) The Fed will be happy with 3-4% inflation B) The Fed will hike but just until “something” breaks Nope. Regaining credibility = inflation back to 2%. There is no room for nuances anymore, unfortunately.

Callie Cox @callieabost

The difference between the 3-month and 10-year yields has been one of the more accurate recession indicators over the past few decades. Earlier this year, it was solidly positive, even as the 2-year/10-year yield spread inverted. That's uh...not the case any more.

Nick Gerli @nickgerli1

😬Big Problems ahead for Real Estate Investors. The 6-Month US Treasury now yields basically the same as Buying & Renting Out a House in America (aka Cap Rate). Translation: big Real Estate Investor selloff coming. Especially among Wall Street owners. 📉

Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 White House releases framework for #crypto regulation in the United States.

Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru

Shopify rival BigCommerce partners with BitPay and CoinPayments to integrate #Bitcoin and #crypto payments.

Bitcoin Archive 🗄🚀🌔 @BTC_Archive

💥UKRAINE: #Bitcoin and crypto accepted at +100 supermarkets by retailer Varus.

Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 White House says a US CBDC has the potential to offer significant benefits.

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

Recent developments: 1. Mortgage rates cross 6% for first time since 2008 2. FedEx warns of huge slowdown in shipping 3. Computer chip producers fall on weak demand 4. Housing prices down 6% in 2 months 5. Credit card debt up 30% in 4 months Recession is an understatement.

---

What’s Happening Now?

Bitcoin has pulled down to below $20k finding support at the range it has been holding so far of $19-20k.

Weekly Timeframe Bitcoin

On the daily time frame, we managed to push up past the downtrend temporarily, but we have pulled back down to the top of the 2nd range and to below the diagonal downtrend.

Daily Timeframe Bitcoin. Red/blue boxes are potential area support/resistance, blue line represents downtrend we seem to be following, yellow line represents 200 week SMA

---

What Might Happen Next?