Riding The Wave Weekly Outlook #33

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Table of Contents

1. Tweets

2. What’s Happening Now?

3. What Might Happen Next?

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Tweets

Joyce Karam @Joyce_Karam

BREAKING: Video of hostage situation in #Lebanon at a major bank in downtown Beirut. An armed man is holding bank staff until they release his deposits, he says are $210,000:

Dylan LeClair 🟠 @DylanLeClair_

🚨TORNADO CASH DEVELOPER ARRESTED IN AMSTERDAM🚨 Tornado Cash is non-custodial open source software. This is a blatant attack on privacy, open source software, and digital cash.

Plan©️ @TheRealPlanC

I am NOT saying the #BTC bottom is in... Just pointing out potential cyclical opportunity. ✔️ 2015 - Risk 1/100 ✔️ 2018 - Risk 2/100 ✔️ 2020 - Risk 1/100 ✔️ 2022 - Risk 1/100 #Bitcoin #Crypto

Alf @MacroAlf

The uprising soft landing narrative assumes inflation will drop to reasonable levels while growth will hold up well. My G5 Credit Impulse (black) seems to suggest BOTH inflation (orange) and economic growth (blue) will be heading downwards pretty sharply from here.

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

This bear market is not like 2020 or 2008, it’s like 2001. Valuations were too high and rates were too low and now 40-year high inflation was thrown in. In 2000-2001, we had 7 relief rallies of 10%+. We have had just 3 this bear market. Can we make history with a bottom here?

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

If stocks bottomed, it would be: 1. First bear market with 2 relief rallies since 1973 2. A 12% higher low than the average bear market 3. First bear market to bottom without $VIX at 45+ 4. A low 3 months sooner than the average bear market A bottom here would make history.

Blockworks @Blockworks_

OFFICIAL: The Ethereum Merge has been scheduled for ≈ September 15th/16th

Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick

More than 80% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are now above their 50-day moving average. Historically, thrusts like this tend to suggest continued strength (unless they happen in front of a 100 year pandemic). Will this time be different? I say no, but what do you think?

Wall Street Silver @WallStreetSilv

Here we go again… The beginning of the Big Short version 2.0…?

Empire 🟪 @theempirepod

Here's an easy way to understand blockchains, hard forks (sup $ETH merge) and why decentralization matters. I present you with a 10 IQ example 🧵 👇

Mark Moss @1MarkMoss

Reminder: CPI Inflation dropping from 9.1% to 8.5% DOES NOT mean prices are coming down it only means prices are still going up, just a little bit slower

Alf @MacroAlf

Was this CPI report a breath of fresh air for the Fed and markets? Yes. Does it also validate the ''Just Buy Everything''? No. A thread on today's US inflation print and its market implications. 1/

Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 The SEC has launched an investigation into #Coinbase’s staking programs.

Callie Cox @callieabost

Looking at Fed hike cycles since 1970 and I'm noticing something interesting: In 5/12 hiking cycles, the Fed started cutting rates within a month of when CPI peaked (for that hike cycle).

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What’s Happening Now?

Bitcoin is still above its 8-week SMA & it is finding support on the 200-week SMA. The 20-week SMA still hasn’t pulled down to meet our current price.

Weekly Timeframe Bitcoin

On the daily time frame, we are still finding resistance at the $24,000 price point as we approach the diagonal downtrend.

Daily Timeframe Bitcoin. Red/blue boxes are potential area support/resistance, blue line represents downtrend we seem to be following, yellow line represents 200 week SMA

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What Might Happen Next?