Riding The Wave Weekly Outlook #32

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Table of Contents

1. Tweets

2. What’s Happening Now?

3. What Might Happen Next?

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Tweets

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

Today’s reaction to the July jobs report is that this market remains incredibly fragile. The root of this entire relief rally has been hopes of a less hawkish Fed. Now, the Fed is basically driving all price action in this market. Rallies should be built on data, not hopes.

Blockworks @Blockworks_

Tiffany sold out its 250 NFTs at 30 ETH each making ~$12.5M

Dan Tapiero @DTAPCAP

How can you not be bullish?

eToro US @eToroUS

👉"This selloff started because we were in the midst of uncontrollable inflation. Now, demand is slowing, and while that puts the economy in a rough spot, it could take care of the inflation crisis." - @callieabost via @SPGlobal etoro.tw/3oWDASk

etoro.twAfter S&P 500’s best month since 2020, analysts look for bear market’s endAfter a historically bad first half of the year, the S&P 500 rallied 9.11% in July, its best month in almost two years.

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

Recent Events: 1. Inflation at 40 year high of 9%+ 2. Credit card debt up 30% since April 3. Largest geopolitical conflict since WW2 4. Rising rates into a recession 5. Lowest mortgage demand since 2001 Yet, $SPX is down just 14%. If this can't crash the market, what will?

Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru

JUST IN: Nomad cross-chain bridge white hat hackers have returned $12.8 million of the $190 million exploit.

Plan©️ @TheRealPlanC

But... this time is different!! Are you sure? 🤔 #Bitcoin #Crypto

Tristan ζ (in Seoul 🇰🇷) @Tristan0x

Tough day for everyone on Solana today, but here's a breakdown of what we know: 1/ At approximately 22:37 UTC yesterday a hacker began a widespread exploit, the extent of which has so far affected $4M+ of assets from 9.2k+ unique wallets.

unusual_whales @unusual_whales

Americans opened 233 million new credit card accounts in the April-June period, the most since 2008.

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What’s Happening Now?

Bitcoin closed above its 8 week & 200 week SMA last week & is currently finding support on its 8 week SMA.

Weekly Timeframe Bitcoin

On the daily time frame, we have bounced down from the $24,400 price point and we are still approaching the diagonal downtrend.

Daily Timeframe Bitcoin. Red/blue boxes are potential area support/resistance, blue line represents downtrend we seem to be following, yellow line represents 200 week SMA

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What Might Happen Next?

It’s looking more likely that unless any more macro-economic drops happen Bitcoin & crypto as a whole may have set in a bottom for this drop (based on past data & indicators that have been built on them). As these indicators are largely looking inwards as they are on-chain and the data they are built on isn’t from a time period where we saw a recession, I still see a drop from the wider space as a realistic possibility. If we continue to see stability and an up trend for the next several months, I plan to start DCAing into crypto again.

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Disclaimer: The information in this Newsletter is not financial, legal, or tax advice. I only trade on Etoro; if you are reached out to by people requesting you join a group or provide money, it is not me. My only public social media accounts are this Substack page, my Youtube page, my Twitter page, and my Etoro page; any others you see online are not me.