Riding The Wave Weekly Outlook #30

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Table of Contents

1. Tweets

2. What’s Happening Now?

3. What Might Happen Next?

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Tweets

Edgy - The DeFi Edge 🗡️ @thedefiedge

It's hard for me to be bullish until the Fed changes course. Some interesting thoughts below.

jbjbjb @bryptobricks

Never passing up an opportunity for free clout from @ASvanevik so let me drop some alpha real quick: "Why I DON'T think the bottom is in" (using on-chain data + macro trends) Credentials: I'm a trader/defi analyst at a major crypto fund and use Nansen almost daily 🧵1/x

Willy Woo @woonomic

BTC punched through a capitulation structure. i.e. investors who bought higher sold out in droves while urgent buyers were there to rally the price against the selling. The next step in a proper bottom signature happens when the contours get dense under the price.

ThreadGuy.eth 🧵 @notthreadguy

BREAKING: Minecraft BANS NFTs after a plug-in generated more revenue in 2022 than 10+ years of Mojang.

Plan©️ @TheRealPlanC

If someone just DCAed every single day this indicator was in the green zone they would have historically done great. An oscillator that models the number of standard deviations that price has moved away from the 1460-day (4-Year SMA). 🚨 NOT Financial Advice. #Bitcoin #Crypto

Will Clemente @WClementeIII

Tesla has sold 75% of their Bitcoin for $936MM

Ran NeuNer @cryptomanran

When the market doesn’t respond to one of the biggest Bitcoin holder’s and the richest man in the world selling 75% their Bitcoin stake, I would say that’s a bottom.

PlanB @100trillionUSD

In hindsight, it's so easy. This is either a generational buying opportunity (like end-2011/begin-2012, 2015, and end-2018/begin-2019) ... Or this time is different and the world ends.

Miles Deutscher @milesdeutscher

The fascinating story of @elonmusk and #Bitcoin. 🧵: How $TSLA squandered $1b+ in unrealised profits, sold at a loss, and what it means for the future of crypto.👇

Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine

BREAKING: European Central Bank raises rates by 0.50% in its first hike in 11 years

Miles Deutscher @milesdeutscher

.@VitalikButerin claims that #Ethereum will be able to to process "100,000 transactions per second", following the completion of 5 key phases: • The Merge • The Surge • The Verge • The Purge • The Splurge A quick breakdown of what each stage means for $ETH. 👇

Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru

California will allow #cryptocurrency donations for political campaigns.

PlanB @100trillionUSD

Like clockwork

Callie Cox @callieabost

Next week, GDP could show we’re in a ~technical~ recession. But if you’re prepping your portfolio for a recession, you may be too late 🍎 THE BOTTOM LINE 🍎 on why the markets may be over the recession story etoro.com/en-us/news-and…

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What’s Happening Now?

Bitcoin is currently hovering just under the 8-week and 200-week SMA, although we will need to see whether it manages to hold at this price until Sunday when this weeks candle closes.

Weekly Timeframe Bitcoin

On the daily time frame, we have broken into the range just above the one we were hovering in before. We have been rejected from moving through it to the next higher range (as can be seen below) 3 days ago.

Daily Timeframe Bitcoin. Red/blue boxes are potential areas of support/resistance, blue line represents downtrend we seem to be following, yellow line represents 200 week SMA

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What Might Happen Next?

The fact that news of Tesla having sold 75% of the Bitcoin it was holding didn’t send Bitcoins price lower is a good sign, but until we actually manage to break above the important moving averages or form a strong trend sideways or upwards, I am not planning to start DCA’ing in. Short pushes upwards in price like we are seeing now aren’t a sign that the downtrend has ended, especially with the fed still making rate hikes and inflation still rising.

What I do plan to do over the coming months (& what I would recommend many of you do as well) is look for projects that I think might survive until the worst of the bear market is over and thrive in the next bull run, which I can then start DCA’ing into once the dust has settled. I will post this research to this newsletter when it is complete.

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Disclaimer: The information in this Newsletter is not financial, legal, or tax advice. I only trade on Etoro; if you are reached out to by people requesting you join a group or provide money, it is not me. My only public social media accounts are this Substack page, my Youtube page, my Twitter page, and my Etoro page; any others you see online are not me.