Riding The Wave Weekly Outlook #10
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Table of Contents
What’s Happening Now?
What Might Happen Next?
Some Tweets and Articles that will help if you want to research further
What’s Happening Now?
With the threat of Russia invading Ukraine and then actually following through with it we failed to break above the 8 week SMA. This means that the 8 week SMA has continued to hold as resistance and that we haven’t yet flipped to the upside.
Some background on the conflict & how it has gradually escalated over time:
“Prior to 1991, Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union and had Soviet nuclear weapons in its territory. ... Formally, these weapons were controlled by the Commonwealth of Independent States. In 1994 Ukraine agreed to destroy the weapons, and to join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)“ (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine)
This lack of nuclear weapons made Ukraine an easier target as the principles of Mutually Assured Destruction no longer applied after they got rid of their nuclear weapons.
In 2014 Russia’s annexation of Crimea led to NATO deciding to stop working with Russia as directly as they did before
“On 1 April 2014, NATO unanimously decided to suspend all practical co-operation with the Russian Federation, in response to the Annexation of Crimea, but the NATO-Russia Council (NRC) was not suspended.“ (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93NATO_relations)
Over the past 10-15 years Ukraine has moved towards becoming more involved with NATO
“On 1 January 2016, Ukraine joined the DCFTA with the EU. ... On 21 February 2019, the Constitution of Ukraine was amended, the norms on the strategic course of Ukraine for membership in the European Union and NATO are enshrined in the preamble of the Basic Law, three articles and transitional provisions.“ (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93European_Union_relations )
”On 12 June 2020, Ukraine joined NATO's enhanced opportunity partner interoperability program. According to an official NATO statement, the new status "does not prejudge any decisions on NATO membership."” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93NATO_relations)
Russia invades with this televised address by Putin giving his reasons for why he has decided to invade Ukraine. (I have included these quotes as I feel they provide key information from the speech & support my timeline/rationale.)
(Transcript I am quoting from: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/full-transcript-vladimir-putin-s-televised-address-to-russia-on-ukraine-feb-24?sref=xuVirdpv&utm_content=business&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social)
”This array includes promises not to expand NATO eastwards even by an inch.”
”Even now, with NATO’s eastward expansion the situation for Russia has been becoming worse and more dangerous by the year. Moreover, these past days NATO leadership has been blunt in its statements that they need to accelerate and step up efforts to bring the alliance’s infrastructure closer to Russia’s borders.”
”Any further expansion of the North Atlantic alliance’s infrastructure or the ongoing efforts to gain a military foothold of the Ukrainian territory are unacceptable for us.”
”In this context, in accordance with Article 51 (Chapter VII) of the UN Charter, with permission of Russia’s Federation Council, and in execution of the treaties of friendship and mutual assistance with the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic, ratified by the Federal Assembly on February 22, I made a decision to carry out a special military operation.The purpose of this operation is to protect people who, for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime. To this end, we will seek to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation.”
”I would now like to say something very important for those who may be tempted to interfere in these developments from the outside. No matter who tries to stand in our way or all the more so create threats for our country and our people, they must know that Russia will respond immediately, and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history. No matter how the events unfold, we are ready. All the necessary decisions in this regard have been taken. I hope that my words will be heard.”
What Might Happen Next?
I don’t expect this to further pull us down and I think we would have already moved up in price if this event hadn’t happened. With all of the events happening recently the markets haven’t had much room to breathe and to push upwards. Some events I think may happen related to the world in general & crypto are:
Gas prices rise as sanctions are imposed as well as the prices of other raw materials (If you look up Ukraine’s exports, raw materials make up the majority, especially to Russia which in part is likely why they have made this move to take Ukraine. Controlling Ukraine makes them more independent from the rest of the world and allows them to be more aggressive with fewer consequences.).
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