Riding The Wave News Summary #64
‘Wen Flippening?’ Crypto Fans Wager on Ether Surpassing Bitcoin, Historically accurate Bitcoin metric exits buy zone in ‘unprecedented’ 2022 bear market, & more
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Bitcoin, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency, has always reigned supreme in the land of digital assets. But now, thanks to an eye-popping surge by Ether, fans of the No. 2 token by market value are reviving predictions that it is destined to one day take over the throne.
In crypto parlance, it’s known as the “flippening” -- and it’s still likely a ways off, if it happens. Ether’s market value of around $210 billion is less than half the size of Bitcoin’s even after Ether surged 50% over the past month. And yet, believers are energized with a fresh optimism as a milestone approaches that they say will increase the chances of it happening -- perhaps sooner rather than later.
Ether has surged in recent weeks as optimism grows over its long-anticipated software upgrade, which will facilitate a move from the current system of using miners to a more energy-efficient one using staked coins. The switch to this so-called proof-of-stake system is expected to take place in September after being kicked down the road for several years.
“The Merge is over-hyped from an ETH price-perspective,” he said. “It’s an incredibly important technological change for Ethereum, but 99.99% of users will experience no difference whatsoever until months or years later. Meanwhile, the impacts of reducing and reallocating issuance will take a while to filter down to ETH prices.”
“I wouldn’t be surprised to see prices pump into the Merge, but I don’t think it’s a sustainable catalyst until the second half of 2023,” Elder said.
The Flippening (the event where Ethereums market cap would become larger than Bitcoins) always comes up whenever Bitcoin is down trending and Ethereum is instead seeing a tick upwards in price but historically this has turned out to be a short term divergence. In the long term, Bitcoin has been the market leader determining its overall direction & I dont see this time as being any different. Once the merge comes about we will see if this uptick holds or if it was largely due to the anticipation.
As the July monthly close approaches, the Puell Multiple has left its bottom zone, leading to hopes that the worst of the losses may be in the past.
The Puell Multiple is one of the best-known on-chain Bitcoin metrics. It measures the value of mined Bitcoin on a given day compared to the value of those mined in the past 365 days.
The resulting multiple is used to determine whether a day’s mined coins are particularly high or low relative to the year’s average. From that, miner profitability can be inferred, along with more general conclusions about how overbought or oversold the market is.
After hitting levels that traditionally accompany macro price bottoms, the Puell Multiple is now aiming higher — something traditionally seen at the start of macro price uptrends.
As Cointelegraph reported, accumulation trends among hodlers are also suggesting that the macro bottom is already in.
As sentiment exits the “fear” zone, market watchers are pointing to unique phenomena which continue to make the 2022 bear market extremely difficult to predict with any certainty.
Realized price is the average at which the BTC supply last moved, and currently sits just below $22,000.
“The Realized Price has signaled the market bottoms in previous cycles,” CryptoQuant
While normally retaining it as support with brief dips below, BTC/USD managed to flip the 200-week MA to resistance for the first time in 2022. It currently sits at around $22,800, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
With the macro economic situations I would be surprised if these indicators acted as accurately as they had during past more stable economic situations as they are based on non-recession data. Relief rallies are still lining up across markets leading me to believe we are still coupled, and with employment still in the green (not yet crashed), housing still in the green(not yet crashed), & inflation still up, I would expect more rate hikes and more downside for the markets in general. Of course, if Crypto diverged from its current pattern, we could see a huge and fast uptick in price, but I would be surprised to see that (Crypto holders have rents, mortgages, & need food just like everyone else).
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