February Tweet Highlights
A Highlight of the most important tweets from 2023 February Newsletters
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This upcoming March...
#BTC will need to breach ~$25000 to break the Macro Downtrend and confirm a new Macro Uptrend
$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
Realized Price — the average purchase price of #Bitcoin — about to flip back positive into an ascending trend.
Breaking: No ban on #crypto!
Janet Yellen says, "We haven't suggested outright banning of crypto activities…”
#Bitcoin #Cardano
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Pushing #Bitcoin and crypto away from the U.S. will be a "strategic mistake for the U.S. across multiple domains” - Cato Institute
💯 🎯
JUST IN: Core PCE inflation just INCREASED for the first time since October 2022.
Not only were the numbers above expectations, inflation is RISING again according to this data.
The Fed's "preferred" inflation metric is literally rising again.
Is a 50 bps rate hike coming?
The US might temporarily have a tight monetary policy dampening its money supply resulting in less liquidity, but adding China's money supply makes more than up for that.
#Bitcoin is a global phenomenon.
Simple is powerful. Here's the timing of #Bitcoin cycles.
Probably means we are entering the re-accumulation phase of the cycle. Here's the past zones.
NEW: 🇺🇸 US Senator tabled a bill to make sure #Bitcoin can NOT be excluded as an option from 401(k) plans.
JUST IN: PPI data from January was "revised" higher showing inflation at 6.5% instead of 6.2%.
This comes after both December and November CPI inflation data was "revised" higher last week.
First they revise the numbers, then they start changing the calculation methodology.
The #bitcoin ordinal effect:
Inscription fee rates, mean block size, and taproot utilization are all exploding, while the mempool (transaction queue) is beginning to fill for the first time in months.
Difficulty/hashrate and utxo/tx based models are currently spot on.
S2F and time/adoption based models are too high.
Will these 4 models converge again, i.e. will difficulty and utxo pump?
The housing market has never frozen this rapidly.
Not even leading to 2007-2008.
Blackstone, KKR & Co are limiting redemptions from their funds in an attempt to slow the bleeding.
Unless mortgage rates come down quick, it's not looking particularly good for house prices.
JUST IN: Coinbase CEO says they will happily defend their staking services in court if needed, following Kraken SEC charges.
This bear market is now near its 3rd relief rally of 15%+.
For reference, the 2000-2001 bear market had 7 rallies of 15%+.
This bear market is also now 1 year old, older than the average of 10 months.
Either a major bottom formed or the biggest bull trap in history is coming.
Cancelled due to “technical reasons”
No details provided.
LOL
Bitcoin Archive @BTC_Archive
Also, this is an abnormally long bear market if we *don't* end up hitting a recession.
In the three bears that didn't overlap with a recession, the S&P 500's peak-to-trough decline took an average of 6 months
Callie Cox @callieabost
JUST IN: 🇬🇧 Bank of England proposes £10,000–£20,000 holding limit per person for its digital pound (CBDC).
The Financial Conditions Index for the US is back to the "normal" range.
Methinks this is not what the Federal Reserve is looking for.
Goldman Sachs: “We have cut our subjective probability that the US economy will enter a recession in the next 12 months from 35% to 25%.”
The smoothed recession probability indicator says that there was a 5% probability of a recession in Dec. 2022.
The highest this has ever gone without turning into a recession is ~30%. Anything over that has ended with a recession.
This is the highest it has been since 2009.
Disclaimer: The information in this Newsletter is not financial, legal, or tax advice. I only trade on Etoro; if you are reached out to by people requesting you join a group or provide money, it is not me. My only public social media accounts are this Substack page, my Youtube page, my Twitter page, and my Etoro page; any others you see online are not me.