Market Update #3

An uptrend forms?

Hello Everyone,

I hope you are all having a great day, wanted to make a quick post on where the Crypto market is and where it might go next. In the picture below I have posted a screenshot which I will reference when discussing the markets.

Blue Vertical line represents start of the bull run (halving event), blue highlighted area is where I initially thought we may peak, purple vertical line is where we would have peaked if the bull run was the exact same length as the previous bull run, yellow box is where I think we may peak

How Bitcoin is behaving tends to determine how the rest of the crypto market as a whole behaves. 2 weeks ago Bitcoin finally closed above the 8 week SMA (light red line). The 8 week SMA has served as resistance for the past several months pushing Bitcoin’s price lower and lower. Bitcoin closing above it ended the previous downtrend and offered Bitcoin an opportunity. It offered the opportunity for it to form a new trend, in the best case an uptrend, and in the worst-case another downtrend.

This past week Bitcoin pushed above the 20 week (green line) and 50 week SMA's (yellow line) which it had also been below (when above major Simple Moving Averages they tend to help support the price of an asset keeping it above the SMA’s when below they tend to function as resistance holding the assets price down).  

Now that we have broken above all of these major moving averages, what is next for Bitcoin? 

I am hopeful that breaking above these SMA's (as well as all the positive indicator news/media news we have seen) means we may be in the final steps of forming an uptrend and possibly the start of a second leg to this bull run. If this is the case, we may see Bitcoin peak between July and September of this year if we end up seeing the bull market scale out by a similar amount of time when compared with previous bull runs. Using a logarithmic growth curve fit to past bull runs as well as a scaled-down peak based on previous bull run tops Bitcoin could peak somewhere around $170k to $230k if we followed a similar timeline and Bitcoin was consistent with its past behavior. I say if Bitcoin is consistent as it is unlikely to be, but we can hope : ) 

Of course, this could be a bull trap, we could fail to form an uptrend instead of forming a downtrend, we could see another market panic-inducing event like the invasion of Ukraine, or any other number of situations but this is the outcome I think is most likely given the currently available information.